Peak Prices, Runways and Rockford
FedEx and UPS ground parcel prices are projected to hit a record in the fourth quarter. A price story is also a runway story: parcels move by air, and the planes have to land somewhere. This brief follows one answer, Chicago Rockford International Airport (RFD), and asks what the region’s airports and certified small firms should watch.
As of October 16, 2026. Every figure below was checked against its source, and anything we could not verify is labeled.
Read the text version of the graphic
Sticky notes.
- Big Picture: Q4 ground parcel price is projected at a record 43.3% above Jan. 2018. Express: record 20.3%.
- What Just Happened: Oct. 16: Supply Chain Dive reports the TD Cowen/AFS index. Q3 eased. Peak surcharges end the break.
- Why It Matters: Fuel surcharges stay high even when diesel falls. Discounts favor big shippers.
- Who It Affects: Shippers, carriers and cargo hubs like Rockford (RFD): UPS hub, Amazon Air, 8,000 jobs.
- What Comes Next: Peak season runs through Q4. A 334,800 sq ft logistics building near RFD is due April 2027.
- GOTB Angle: Read the airport's capital plan and bid notices. Be certified, bonded and ready before the solicitation.
Study guide.
- The Price: Ground parcel rate per package is projected at 43.3% above its Jan. 2018 baseline in Q4, a record. Q3 was 38.8%. (Supply Chain Dive, 10/16/26)
- The Surcharge: 72% of the ground fuel surcharge rise since Q1 2021 came from carrier adjustments, not diesel. (Supply Chain Dive, 10/16/26)
- The Hub: RFD landed 3.4B+ lbs in 2025 (+9.21%), No. 12 of 155 U.S. airports. RFD says it hosts the 2nd-largest UPS hub in North America. (RFD release, 7/2/26)
- The Catch: RFD's director: high fuel prices pushed some freighter deals back; volume tracking a couple of percent below 2025. (Air Cargo News, 8/10/26)
- The Build: 334,800 sq ft logistics building a mile from RFD, due April 2027. Capital set aside for a cool-chain warehouse. (Air Cargo News, 8/10/26)
Key takeaway. Record peak prices test shippers, carriers and airports alike. Volume and infrastructure decide who benefits. Everybody has to win.
The numbers
Price figures are an index projection (TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index) as reported by Supply Chain Dive. Cargo figures are the airport’s own release of FAA data.
What the three sources say
A record, and not just diesel
Supply Chain Dive reports that ground parcel rate per package is projected to hit an all-time high of 43.3% in Q4 on the TD Cowen/AFS index, which is measured against a January 2018 baseline, after 38.8% in Q3. Express is projected at 20.3%, also a record. It says 72% of the rise in the ground fuel surcharge since Q1 2021 came from carrier adjustments rather than diesel, and that discounting rebounded in a way that favors large shippers.
Source: Supply Chain Dive, Oct. 16, 2026Rockford’s best year
RFD says it landed more than 3.4 billion pounds of cargo in 2025, up 9.21%, ranking No. 12 of 155 U.S. airports, the highest in its history. It says it hosts the second-largest UPS hub in North America and a major Amazon Air base, and that the airport and its tenants are home to 8,000 jobs.
Source: RFD release, July 2, 2026A higher price is not higher volume
Air Cargo News reports that in August the airport’s executive director said higher fuel prices had pushed some freighter opportunities back and that volume was tracking a couple of percent below last year, though he called it a solid year. A 334,800 sq ft logistics building is going up a mile from the airport, and the airport has set aside capital for a cool-chain warehouse.
Source: Air Cargo News, Aug. 10, 2026Reading it fairly
Projections move
The Q4 figure is a projection from an index, and Q3 actually eased. Peak surcharges and capacity limits are what end the break, according to the report. Airport volume figures are the airport’s own release of FAA data.
Source: Supply Chain Dive; RFDEverybody has to win
Shippers want predictable prices, carriers want fair surcharges, and the region wants volume and jobs. Building ahead of demand is a bet that all three can be true at once.
Capital plans tell you where work comes
An airport’s capital budget and bid notices show where the next projects will be. Cool-chain and logistics space near RFD are examples named in the reporting.
Source: Air Cargo NewsWhat this means for airports and small firms
- Read the capital plan. Watch the airport’s capital budget and bid notices for logistics, cold-chain and apron work.
- Get ready early. Be certified, bonded and insured before a solicitation opens, not after.
- Team up. Small and local firms can partner with larger contractors on cargo-area work.
- Mind the stress test. Fuel-driven delays can push freighter deals back, so plan around schedule risk.
- Everybody has to win. Good airport procurement serves shippers, carriers, workers and nearby firms.
What we could not verify
- Future prices and volume. The Q4 figure is a projection, and the airport’s volume could change by year-end.
- The 43.3% baseline. One sentence in the article compares the Q4 figure with Q4 2025, while the chart is labeled against the January 2018 baseline. We use the baseline framing, as the chart and the Q3 figure do.
- RFD’s hub claims. The UPS and Amazon Air statements and the 8,000-job figure are the airport’s own statements, which we did not independently verify.
- The logistics building. The April 2027 opening is as reported in August and could change.
- Chicago-area procurement. We did not check RFD’s bid notices. Nothing here claims any firm will win work.
Sources, checked on October 16, 2026
- Supply Chain Dive, “FedEx, UPS delivery prices set for record-high Q4” (Oct. 16, 2026)
- Chicago Rockford International Airport, “RFD Moves Up to No. 12 in FAA Cargo Rankings Alongside Passenger Travel Growth” (July 2, 2026)
- Air Cargo News, “Chicago Rockford outlines its cargo ambitions” (Aug. 10, 2026)
What is ours. The plain-words boxes and the points on contracts and procurement are GOTB’s interpretation, labeled as such. Everything else is quoted or counted from the sources above.
Claims and findings. This brief summarizes published reports and the airport’s own release. It does not recommend any carrier, shipper or airport.
This page is general information, not legal, engineering, security or investment advice, and it does not promote any product or company. Figures are as reported by the sources linked, as of October 16, 2026.
About
Meet Michael E. Brown
President and Managing Partner, GOTB Consulting, LLC · Chicago
Michael E. Brown has 20+ years of governmental and municipal consulting and lobbying experience. He was lead contract negotiator on the $8.5B O’Hare 21 program and the $800M O’Hare rail extension, and lead lobbyist and contract negotiator on the $400M Chicago Department of Water Management lateral redevelopment. (Dollar figures are program sizes, not GOTB fees.)
He has worked with the Illinois legislature and public officials on public-private partnership (P3) policy, and has consulted to the Cook County Commission on reducing duplicative administrative offices. He is a frequent speaker at governmental and municipal functions, focuses on good government and healthier social and economic solutions for safe, successful neighborhoods, lives in Chicago, and serves on the Board of the March of Dimes.
- M.S., Psychology (1997), University of Iowa
- B.S., Psychology (1995), University of Iowa
About
Meet Richard Butler
Partner, GOTB Consulting, LLC · Chicago
Richard (Rich) Butler is a partner at GOTB Consulting and a 38-year veteran of Chicago city government. From August 2019 to February 2020 he served as First Deputy Commissioner and Chief Administrative Officer of the Chicago Department of Aviation (CDA), responsible for day-to-day administration and operations of O’Hare and Midway, including finance, contracts, operations, legal, human resources, workforce development, concessions, real estate and vehicle services. CDA manages the two airports with a federally funded budget of $8.5 billion. (Dollar figures are budget and program sizes, not GOTB fees.)
Before that, Rich was First Deputy Procurement Officer at the City’s Department of Procurement Services and Chief Administrative Officer of the Chicago Park District, where he oversaw procurement, audit, finance, warehousing and general administrative services on an estimated annual budget of $385 million and established district-wide policies and procedures. His City career began at the Department of Aviation as Director of Contracts Administration, and he also served as General Superintendent of the Department of Streets and Sanitation.
He completed the Chicago Accounting and Purchasing System Training Program and the City of Chicago Executive Management Program, was a key team member on the design and implementation plan for the City’s new eProcurement system, and is a member of the National Institute of Governmental Purchasing and the Purchasing Management Association of Chicago. He has served on the board of the Chicago Municipal Employees Credit Union and on the US Communities board, representing the City of Chicago, and traveled to South Korea to represent Chicago in the Kotra Alliance to bridge contracting opportunities. A native of Englewood, he attended De La Salle High School.
- B.S., Northern Illinois University
Fictional characters from GOTB’s original stories. Real-world facts always link to public sources.